ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LFO 8 pick
50%47%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Ground Zero · 13 maps
NukeLFO 8 ban
50%79%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +29%Ground Zero · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 8 maps
MirageGround Zero pick
50%60%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 6 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
50%57%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
50%50%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 2 maps
DefaultLFO 8 ban
50%60%
LFO 8 · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 8 remove Nuke
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickLFO 8 take Dust2
4. PickGround Zero take Mirage
5. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
6. BanLFO 8 remove Default
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
LFO 8 53%Ground Zero 47%
The model gave 53% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
LFO 8 50%Ground Zero 50%
The model gave 50% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 71%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2