ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MARKandLARRY pick
50%50%
LFO 8 · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%33%
LFO 8 · 6 mapsedge LFO 8 +27%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
CacheLFO 8 pick
56%33%
LFO 8 · 5 mapsedge LFO 8 +23%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
NukeMARKandLARRY ban
44%60%
LFO 8 · 5 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +16%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
AncientMARKandLARRY ban
50%50%
LFO 8 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
40%43%
LFO 8 · 1 mapnearly even -3%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
AnubisLFO 8 ban
40%40%
LFO 8 · 1 mapnearly even +0%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Ancient
3. PickLFO 8 take Cache
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Dust2
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Nuke
6. BanLFO 8 remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
LFO 8 32%MARKandLARRY 68%
The model gave 68% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
LFO 8 74%MARKandLARRY 26%
The model gave 74% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 62%
Series resultMARKandLARRY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2