CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lilmix ban
24%40%
Lilmix · 13 mapsedge DONSTU +16%DONSTU · 11 maps
AncientDONSTU ban
41%45%
Lilmix · 13 mapsnearly even -4%DONSTU · 7 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
71%36%
Lilmix · 10 mapsedge Lilmix +35%DONSTU · 7 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
40%56%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge DONSTU +16%DONSTU · 14 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
32%50%
Lilmix · 15 mapsedge DONSTU +18%DONSTU · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
55%60%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge DONSTU +5%DONSTU · 1 map
DefaultDONSTU pick
50%60%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Anubis
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickLilmix take Inferno
4. PickDONSTU take Default
5. BanDONSTU remove Ancient
6. BanLilmix remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Lilmix 83%DONSTU 17%
The model gave 83% on Lilmix — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:16
Lilmix 47%DONSTU 53%
The model gave 53% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 55%
Series resultDONSTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2