NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · win 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
30%38%
Lilmix · 16 mapsedge Entropy +8%Entropy · 17 maps
Ancientpossible decider
41%46%
Lilmix · 13 mapsedge Entropy +5%Entropy · 9 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
24%33%
Lilmix · 13 mapsedge Entropy +9%Entropy · 8 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
63%44%
Lilmix · 12 mapsedge Lilmix +19%Entropy · 5 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
40%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 10 maps
OverpassEntropy ban
55%38%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge Lilmix +17%Entropy · 4 maps
CacheEntropy pick
50%70%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Entropy +20%Entropy · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Anubis
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickLilmix take Inferno
4. PickEntropy take Cache
5. BanEntropy remove Overpass
6. BanLilmix remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (41% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Lilmix 50%Entropy 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 59%
Series resultLilmix 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1