NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fortress#236 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
30%33%
Lilmix · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Fortress · 8 maps
CacheLilmix pick
43%21%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +22%Fortress · 10 maps
MirageFortress ban
30%18%
Lilmix · 6 mapsedge Lilmix +12%Fortress · 7 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
43%36%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +7%Fortress · 7 maps
InfernoFortress ban
33%20%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +13%Fortress · 6 maps
NukeLilmix ban
50%30%
Lilmix · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +20%Fortress · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Fortress +7%Fortress · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Nuke
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickLilmix take Cache
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Inferno
6. BanLilmix remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
Lilmix 71%Fortress 29%
The model gave 71% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Fortress.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Lilmix 68%Fortress 32%
The model gave 68% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 53%
Series resultFortress 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2