Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLilmix pick
54%69%
Lilmix · 9 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +15%Johnny Speeds · 9 maps
AncientLilmix ban
29%50%
Lilmix · 10 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +21%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
36%42%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +6%Johnny Speeds · 8 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
25%36%
Lilmix · 8 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +11%Johnny Speeds · 7 maps
OverpassJohnny Speeds pick
44%60%
Lilmix · 5 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +16%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
50%50%
Lilmix · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
38%50%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +12%Johnny Speeds · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Anubis
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
3. PickLilmix take Inferno
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Overpass
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
6. BanLilmix remove Ancient
DeciderCache (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Lilmix 42%Johnny Speeds 58%
The model gave 58% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Lilmix 37%Johnny Speeds 63%
The model gave 63% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 71%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2