Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#191 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ROUNDS#214 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix pick
45%50%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge ROUNDS +5%ROUNDS · 2 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
25%50%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge ROUNDS +25%ROUNDS · 0 maps
AncientLilmix ban
57%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +7%ROUNDS · 0 maps
OverpassROUNDS ban
67%50%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +17%ROUNDS · 0 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
40%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
NukeLilmix ban
50%60%
Lilmix · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Nuke
2. BanROUNDS remove Overpass
3. PickLilmix take Mirage
4. PickROUNDS take Default
5. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
6. BanLilmix remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
Lilmix 63%ROUNDS 37%
The model gave 63% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Lilmix 54%ROUNDS 46%
The model gave 54% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 62%
Series resultLilmix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2