Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Linx Legacy#257 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLinx Legacy pick
40%40%
Linx Legacy · 1 mapnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 1 map
MirageLinx Legacy ban
50%40%
Linx Legacy · 0 mapsedge Linx Legacy +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
NukeA Great Chaos ban
40%50%
Linx Legacy · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLinx Legacy remove Mirage
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Nuke
3. PickLinx Legacy take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Linx Legacy 57%A Great Chaos 43%
The model gave 57% on Linx Legacy — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
Linx Legacy 53%A Great Chaos 47%
The model gave 53% on Linx Legacy — the map was taken by Linx Legacy.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Linx Legacy 40%A Great Chaos 60%
The model gave 60% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Model check result
Model favoriteA Great Chaos · 51%
Series resultA Great Chaos 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3