Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 1:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
atputiesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLiquid ban
63%43%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge Liquid +20%atputies · 3 maps
Mirageatputies pick
43%29%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Liquid +14%atputies · 3 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
22%50%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge atputies +28%atputies · 0 maps
Anubisatputies ban
50%50%
Liquid · 4 mapsnearly even +0%atputies · 0 maps
Ancientatputies ban
50%40%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +10%atputies · 1 map
InfernoLiquid pick
57%50%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Liquid +7%atputies · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Dust2
2. Banatputies remove Anubis
3. PickLiquid take Inferno
4. Pickatputies take Mirage
5. Banatputies remove Ancient
6. BanLiquid remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Liquid 50%atputies 50%
The model gave 50% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 91%
Series resultLiquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1