Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dhalaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLiquid pick
58%50%
Liquid · 8 mapsedge Liquid +8%Dhala · 0 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
30%40%
Liquid · 6 mapsedge Dhala +10%Dhala · 1 map
NukeDhala pick
60%60%
Liquid · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Dhala · 1 map
CacheDhala ban
57%40%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Liquid +17%Dhala · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
57%40%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Liquid +17%Dhala · 1 map
MirageDhala ban
43%50%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Dhala +7%Dhala · 0 maps
AncientLiquid ban
50%50%
Liquid · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Dhala · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. BanDhala remove Mirage
3. PickLiquid take Anubis
4. PickDhala take Nuke
5. BanDhala remove Cache
6. BanLiquid remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Liquid 36%Dhala 64%
The model gave 64% on Dhala — the map was taken by Liquid.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Liquid 53%Dhala 47%
The model gave 53% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 91%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2