IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 10:13
MIBR#12 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLiquid ban
50%50%
Liquid · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 2 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
25%50%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge MIBR +25%MIBR · 0 maps
InfernoMIBR ban
60%33%
Liquid · 1 mapedge Liquid +27%MIBR · 2 maps
MirageMIBR ban
40%50%
Liquid · 1 mapedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 2 maps
NukeLiquid ban
50%60%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
50%60%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge MIBR +10%MIBR · 1 map
OverpassLiquid ban
50%40%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%MIBR · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Overpass
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. BanLiquid remove Ancient
4. BanMIBR remove Inferno
5. BanLiquid remove Nuke
6. BanMIBR remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Liquid 40%MIBR 60%
The model gave 60% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoriteMIBR · 56%
Series resultMIBR 10:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1