AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%67%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge DH Premium +17%DH Premium · 2 maps
AncientDH Premium ban
50%40%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +10%DH Premium · 1 map
Dust2DH Premium pick
50%60%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge DH Premium +10%DH Premium · 1 map
Miragelos kogutos pick
50%40%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +10%DH Premium · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. BanDH Premium remove Ancient
3. Picklos kogutos take Mirage
4. PickDH Premium take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
los kogutos 57%DH Premium 43%
The model gave 57% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
los kogutos 63%DH Premium 37%
The model gave 63% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Model check result
Model favoriteDH Premium · 50%
Series resultlos kogutos 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2