Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemegoshort pick
43%38%
los kogutos · 3 mapsedge los kogutos +5%megoshort · 9 maps
Dust2los kogutos ban
29%50%
los kogutos · 3 mapsedge megoshort +21%megoshort · 6 maps
Ancientlos kogutos pick
63%38%
los kogutos · 4 mapsedge los kogutos +25%megoshort · 4 maps
Defaultmegoshort ban
40%30%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +10%megoshort · 6 maps
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%38%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +12%megoshort · 4 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
57%50%
los kogutos · 3 mapsedge los kogutos +7%megoshort · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%60%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge megoshort +20%megoshort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. Picklos kogutos take Ancient
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Default
6. Banlos kogutos remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
los kogutos 58%megoshort 42%
The model gave 58% on los kogutos — the map was taken by megoshort.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
los kogutos 26%megoshort 74%
The model gave 74% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoritelos kogutos · 57%
Series resultmegoshort 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2