ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · win 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukelos kogutos pick
70%55%
los kogutos · 6 mapsedge los kogutos +15%Noir Verse · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%56%
los kogutos · 7 mapsedge Noir Verse +11%Noir Verse · 5 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
55%38%
los kogutos · 7 mapsedge los kogutos +17%Noir Verse · 4 maps
Dust2los kogutos ban
40%38%
los kogutos · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Noir Verse · 4 maps
CacheNoir Verse ban
29%33%
los kogutos · 3 mapsnearly even -4%Noir Verse · 2 maps
Anubislos kogutos ban
40%57%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 3 maps
DefaultNoir Verse pick
40%50%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Dust2
2. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
3. Picklos kogutos take Nuke
4. PickNoir Verse take Default
5. BanNoir Verse remove Cache
6. Banlos kogutos remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (45% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
los kogutos 31%Noir Verse 69%
The model gave 69% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
los kogutos 69%Noir Verse 31%
The model gave 69% on los kogutos — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 67%
Series resultlos kogutos 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2