NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ROUNDS#231 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageROUNDS ban
50%43%
los kogutos · 2 mapsedge los kogutos +7%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Ancientlos kogutos pick
60%43%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +17%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%43%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +7%ROUNDS · 3 maps
Nukelos kogutos ban
60%50%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +10%ROUNDS · 2 maps
DefaultROUNDS pick
50%60%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 1 map
Dust2ROUNDS ban
40%50%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge ROUNDS +10%ROUNDS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
3. Picklos kogutos take Ancient
4. PickROUNDS take Default
5. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
6. Banlos kogutos remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
los kogutos 40%ROUNDS 60%
The model gave 60% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by ROUNDS.
Model check result
Model favoritelos kogutos · 60%
Series resultROUNDS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1