ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionLCLow Cortisol BR#183 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
50%50%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 16 maps
AncientYawara ban
50%47%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Yawara · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%53%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Yawara · 11 maps
AnubisLow Cortisol BR pick
50%45%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +5%Yawara · 7 maps
CacheYawara ban
50%22%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +28%Yawara · 5 maps
InfernoLow Cortisol BR ban
50%57%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
DefaultLow Cortisol BR ban
50%60%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Default
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickLow Cortisol BR take Anubis
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Ancient
6. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Low Cortisol BR 53%Yawara 47%
The model gave 53% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by Low Cortisol BR.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Low Cortisol BR 44%Yawara 56%
The model gave 56% on Yawara — the map was taken by Low Cortisol BR.
Model check result
Model favoriteLow Cortisol BR · 52%
Series resultLow Cortisol BR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2