LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%60%
LP · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 16 maps
AncientLP pick
61%47%
LP · 14 mapsedge LP +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
Dust2LP ban
38%53%
LP · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +15%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
MirageLP ban
25%65%
LP · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +40%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
73%64%
LP · 7 mapsedge LP +9%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
47%40%
LP · 13 mapsedge LP +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
LP · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Mirage
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickLP take Ancient
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanLP remove Dust2
DeciderCache (73% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
LP 67%BASEMENT BOYS 33%
The model gave 67% on LP — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
LP 14%BASEMENT BOYS 86%
The model gave 86% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by LP.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
LP 60%BASEMENT BOYS 40%
The model gave 60% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 51%
Series resultLP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3