HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLP pick
65%50%
LP · 13 mapsedge LP +15%GBC · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
LP · 12 mapsnearly even +0%GBC · 0 maps
NukeLP ban
38%50%
LP · 9 mapsedge GBC +12%GBC · 0 maps
CacheGBC ban
73%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge LP +23%GBC · 0 maps
Dust2GBC pick
36%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge GBC +14%GBC · 0 maps
MirageLP ban
18%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge GBC +32%GBC · 0 maps
DefaultGBC ban
67%50%
LP · 2 mapsedge LP +17%GBC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Mirage
2. BanGBC remove Cache
3. PickLP take Ancient
4. PickGBC take Dust2
5. BanGBC remove Default
6. BanLP remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
LP 41%GBC 59%
The model gave 59% on GBC — the map was taken by LP.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
LP 34%GBC 66%
The model gave 66% on GBC — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 70%
Series resultLP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2