RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
59%60%
LP · 13 mapsnearly even -1%paiN · 6 maps
InfernoLP pick
68%50%
LP · 15 mapsedge LP +18%paiN · 2 maps
NukepaiN pick
69%50%
LP · 9 mapsedge LP +19%paiN · 8 maps
AncientpaiN ban
59%50%
LP · 13 mapsedge LP +9%paiN · 0 maps
MirageLP ban
50%50%
LP · 10 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 2 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
44%50%
LP · 5 mapsedge paiN +6%paiN · 6 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%63%
LP · 0 mapsedge paiN +13%paiN · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickLP take Inferno
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. BanLP remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (59% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed2:13
LP 71%paiN 29%
The model gave 71% on LP — the map was taken by paiN.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
LP 46%paiN 54%
The model gave 54% on paiN — the map was taken by LP.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
LP 69%paiN 31%
The model gave 69% on LP — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 73%
Series resultpaiN 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3