LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 6:13
RBLS#93 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRBLS ban
65%60%
LP · 13 mapsedge LP +5%RBLS · 1 map
Dust2LP ban
38%50%
LP · 9 mapsedge RBLS +12%RBLS · 4 maps
InfernoRBLS ban
47%50%
LP · 13 mapsnearly even -3%RBLS · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%60%
LP · 12 mapsedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 1 map
CacheRBLS ban
73%60%
LP · 7 mapsedge LP +13%RBLS · 1 map
MirageLP ban
25%50%
LP · 8 mapsedge RBLS +25%RBLS · 0 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%43%
LP · 0 mapsedge LP +7%RBLS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Mirage
2. BanRBLS remove Cache
3. BanLP remove Anubis
4. BanRBLS remove Inferno
5. BanLP remove Dust2
6. BanRBLS remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
LP 55%RBLS 45%
The model gave 55% on LP — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 51%
Series resultRBLS 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1