Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · win 1:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Vasco#232 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LP ban
60%40%
LP · 11 mapsedge LP +20%Vasco · 6 maps
InfernoLP pick
77%50%
LP · 9 mapsedge LP +27%Vasco · 6 maps
MirageVasco ban
58%44%
LP · 8 mapsedge LP +14%Vasco · 5 maps
AncientVasco pick
54%67%
LP · 9 mapsedge Vasco +13%Vasco · 2 maps
NukeVasco ban
64%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge LP +14%Vasco · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%33%
LP · 1 mapedge LP +27%Vasco · 5 maps
OverpassLP ban
44%40%
LP · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Vasco · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Overpass
2. BanVasco remove Nuke
3. PickLP take Inferno
4. PickVasco take Ancient
5. BanVasco remove Mirage
6. BanLP remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
LP 75%Vasco 25%
The model gave 75% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 69%
Series resultLP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1