AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
LPH#150 in the world · win 13:7series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:7
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LPH ban
60%50%
LPH · 1 mapedge LPH +10%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
LPH · 1 mapedge LPH +10%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
LPH 50%DEFEATERS 50%
The model gave 50% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 50%
Series resultLPH 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1