ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LPH#166 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Four Magic#101 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLPH pick
61%57%
LPH · 14 mapsnearly even +4%Four Magic · 3 maps
NukeFour Magic ban
50%50%
LPH · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Four Magic · 0 maps
AnubisFour Magic pick
36%67%
LPH · 7 mapsedge Four Magic +31%Four Magic · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%43%
LPH · 6 mapsedge LPH +7%Four Magic · 3 maps
InfernoFour Magic ban
70%50%
LPH · 6 mapsedge LPH +20%Four Magic · 0 maps
MirageLPH ban
57%43%
LPH · 3 mapsedge LPH +14%Four Magic · 3 maps
CacheLPH ban
29%67%
LPH · 3 mapsedge Four Magic +38%Four Magic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Cache
2. BanFour Magic remove Inferno
3. PickLPH take Ancient
4. PickFour Magic take Anubis
5. BanFour Magic remove Nuke
6. BanLPH remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
LPH 72%Four Magic 28%
The model gave 72% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
LPH 20%Four Magic 80%
The model gave 80% on Four Magic — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteFour Magic · 61%
Series resultLPH 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2