Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
LPH#150 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nexus#159 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nexus ban
64%50%
LPH · 7 mapsedge LPH +14%Nexus · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
LPH · 3 mapsedge LPH +7%Nexus · 4 maps
AncientLPH pick
67%40%
LPH · 5 mapsedge LPH +27%Nexus · 1 map
AnubisLPH ban
67%63%
LPH · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Nexus · 4 maps
NukeNexus ban
43%40%
LPH · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Nexus · 1 map
OverpassNexus pick
50%63%
LPH · 0 mapsedge Nexus +13%Nexus · 4 maps
MirageLPH ban
50%50%
LPH · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nexus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Mirage
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickLPH take Ancient
4. PickNexus take Overpass
5. BanNexus remove Dust2
6. BanLPH remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
LPH 77%Nexus 23%
The model gave 77% on LPH — the map was taken by Nexus.
Anubisprediction missed1:13
LPH 52%Nexus 48%
The model gave 52% on LPH — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 67%
Series resultNexus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2