RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#28 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Envy#26 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLuminosity pick
58%40%
Luminosity · 8 mapsedge Luminosity +18%Envy · 6 maps
Dust2Envy pick
31%57%
Luminosity · 9 mapsedge Envy +26%Envy · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
42%40%
Luminosity · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Envy · 1 map
InfernoLuminosity ban
55%60%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge Envy +5%Envy · 1 map
MirageEnvy ban
67%50%
Luminosity · 8 mapsedge Luminosity +17%Envy · 0 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
33%33%
Luminosity · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Envy · 2 maps
AnubisEnvy ban
50%33%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +17%Envy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanEnvy remove Mirage
3. PickLuminosity take Ancient
4. PickEnvy take Dust2
5. BanEnvy remove Anubis
6. BanLuminosity remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (42% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Luminosity 47%Envy 53%
The model gave 53% on Envy — the map was taken by Envy.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Luminosity 23%Envy 77%
The model gave 77% on Envy — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Luminosity 68%Envy 32%
The model gave 68% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Envy.
Model check result
Model favoriteEnvy · 52%
Series resultEnvy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3