Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80#27 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoM80 pick
33%54%
Luminosity · 5 mapsedge M80 +21%M80 · 9 maps
Dust2Luminosity pick
50%44%
Luminosity · 4 mapsedge Luminosity +6%M80 · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%56%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge M80 +23%M80 · 5 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
50%67%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 5 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
50%43%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge Luminosity +7%M80 · 3 maps
NukeM80 ban
63%50%
Luminosity · 4 mapsedge Luminosity +13%M80 · 0 maps
AnubisM80 ban
50%40%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +10%M80 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickLuminosity take Dust2
4. PickM80 take Inferno
5. BanM80 remove Anubis
6. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (33% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Luminosity 58%M80 42%
The model gave 58% on Luminosity — the map was taken by M80.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Luminosity 31%M80 69%
The model gave 69% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 55%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2