ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
67%53%
Lynn Vision · 5 mapsedge Lynn Vision +14%Chinggis Warriors · 15 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
58%60%
Lynn Vision · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Chinggis Warriors · 11 maps
Dust2Lynn Vision pick
54%54%
Lynn Vision · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 9 maps
AncientLynn Vision ban
58%50%
Lynn Vision · 8 mapsedge Lynn Vision +8%Chinggis Warriors · 8 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
33%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
MirageLynn Vision ban
50%50%
Lynn Vision · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLynn Vision remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickLynn Vision take Dust2
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanLynn Vision remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (67% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Lynn Vision 61%Chinggis Warriors 39%
The model gave 61% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction correct25:23
Lynn Vision 53%Chinggis Warriors 47%
The model gave 53% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Lynn Vision 58%Chinggis Warriors 42%
The model gave 58% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 74%
Series resultLynn Vision 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3