ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · win 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UR#376 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lynn Vision pick
43%50%
Lynn Vision · 10 mapsedge UR +7%UR · 0 maps
AncientUR pick
36%50%
Lynn Vision · 7 mapsedge UR +14%UR · 0 maps
InfernoUR ban
64%50%
Lynn Vision · 7 mapsedge Lynn Vision +14%UR · 0 maps
AnubisLynn Vision ban
50%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsnearly even +0%UR · 0 maps
CacheLynn Vision ban
33%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge UR +17%UR · 0 maps
NukeUR ban
67%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +17%UR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLynn Vision remove Cache
2. BanUR remove Nuke
3. PickLynn Vision take Dust2
4. PickUR take Ancient
5. BanUR remove Inferno
6. BanLynn Vision remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Lynn Vision 47%UR 53%
The model gave 53% on UR — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 90%
Series resultLynn Vision 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1