Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iberian Soul#52 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
50%45%
M80 · 4 mapsedge M80 +5%Iberian Soul · 7 maps
InfernoM80 pick
55%71%
M80 · 7 mapsedge Iberian Soul +16%Iberian Soul · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
M80 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Iberian Soul · 4 maps
CacheIberian Soul ban
57%33%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +24%Iberian Soul · 2 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
38%50%
M80 · 4 mapsedge Iberian Soul +12%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
AnubisIberian Soul pick
40%60%
M80 · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +20%Iberian Soul · 1 map
NukeM80 ban
50%50%
M80 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Iberian Soul · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickIberian Soul take Anubis
5. BanIberian Soul remove Cache
6. BanM80 remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct22:19
M80 58%Iberian Soul 42%
The model gave 58% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
M80 70%Iberian Soul 30%
The model gave 70% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 54%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2