Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#30 in the world · win 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoIncognito pick
50%50%
M80 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Incognito · 2 maps
MirageIncognito ban
60%40%
M80 · 1 mapedge M80 +20%Incognito · 1 map
AncientM80 pick
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Incognito +10%Incognito · 0 maps
AnubisIncognito ban
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Incognito +10%Incognito · 0 maps
DefaultM80 ban
50%60%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%Incognito · 1 map
NukeM80 ban
50%60%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%Incognito · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanIncognito remove Anubis
3. PickM80 take Ancient
4. PickIncognito take Inferno
5. BanIncognito remove Mirage
6. BanM80 remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
M80 40%Incognito 60%
The model gave 60% on Incognito — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 90%
Series resultM80 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1