ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoM80 pick
44%50%
M80 · 5 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +6%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
AncientM80 ban
29%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
DefaultIowa Stormboar ban
67%50%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +17%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
67%50%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +17%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
AnubisM80 ban
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
OverpassIowa Stormboar pick
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Ancient
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Default
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Overpass
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanM80 remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
M80 26%Iowa Stormboar 74%
The model gave 74% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by M80.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
M80 46%Iowa Stormboar 54%
The model gave 54% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 90%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2