IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacy#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
36%36%
M80 · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Legacy · 7 maps
MirageLegacy pick
58%80%
M80 · 8 mapsedge Legacy +22%Legacy · 6 maps
InfernoM80 pick
50%63%
M80 · 8 mapsedge Legacy +13%Legacy · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%70%
M80 · 4 mapsedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 6 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%50%
M80 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Legacy · 6 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%60%
M80 · 2 mapsedge Legacy +10%Legacy · 1 map
DefaultLegacy ban
67%50%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +17%Legacy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanLegacy remove Anubis
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Default
6. BanM80 remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (63% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
M80 39%Legacy 61%
The model gave 61% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Infernoprediction correct13:16
M80 40%Legacy 60%
The model gave 60% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 80%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2