IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 13:8series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 13:8
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
33%56%
M80 · 5 mapsedge Lynn Vision +23%Lynn Vision · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
71%64%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +7%Lynn Vision · 7 maps
InfernoLynn Vision ban
44%50%
M80 · 5 mapsedge Lynn Vision +6%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
MirageLynn Vision ban
56%50%
M80 · 5 mapsedge M80 +6%Lynn Vision · 0 maps
AnubisM80 ban
50%50%
M80 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Lynn Vision · 2 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%57%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Lynn Vision +7%Lynn Vision · 3 maps
DefaultLynn Vision ban
67%50%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +17%Lynn Vision · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanLynn Vision remove Mirage
3. BanM80 remove Ancient
4. BanLynn Vision remove Default
5. BanM80 remove Anubis
6. BanLynn Vision remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (71% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
M80 44%Lynn Vision 56%
The model gave 56% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 52%
Series resultM80 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1