IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 13:6series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 13:6
Sharks#51 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
33%56%
M80 · 5 mapsedge Sharks +23%Sharks · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%67%
M80 · 6 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 2 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%67%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 8 maps
MirageSharks ban
56%33%
M80 · 5 mapsedge M80 +23%Sharks · 2 maps
AnubisM80 ban
50%60%
M80 · 2 mapsedge Sharks +10%Sharks · 1 map
Dust2Sharks ban
71%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +21%Sharks · 0 maps
OverpassSharks ban
40%33%
M80 · 1 mapedge M80 +7%Sharks · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. BanM80 remove Ancient
4. BanSharks remove Mirage
5. BanM80 remove Anubis
6. BanSharks remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
M80 71%Sharks 29%
The model gave 71% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 55%
Series resultM80 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1