ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 3:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Voca#67 in the world · loss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2M80 pick
67%64%
M80 · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Voca · 7 maps
OverpassVoca pick
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Voca +10%Voca · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
M80 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Voca · 2 maps
AncientVoca pick
38%60%
M80 · 4 mapsedge Voca +22%Voca · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
44%50%
M80 · 5 mapsedge Voca +6%Voca · 0 maps
DefaultM80 pick
67%60%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +7%Voca · 1 map
AnubisM80 ban
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Voca +10%Voca · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Anubis
2. BanVoca remove Inferno
3. PickM80 take Default
4. PickVoca take Overpass
5. PickM80 take Dust2
6. PickVoca take Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
M80 50%Voca 50%
The model gave 50% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
M80 43%Voca 57%
The model gave 57% on Voca — the map was taken by M80.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
M80 26%Voca 74%
The model gave 74% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
M80 53%Voca 47%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 71%
Series resultM80 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 4