IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BIG#24 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
64%64%
magic · 10 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 10 maps
MirageBIG ban
56%36%
magic · 5 mapsedge magic +20%BIG · 10 maps
CacheBIG pick
67%70%
magic · 5 mapsnearly even -3%BIG · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%57%
magic · 1 mapnearly even +3%BIG · 10 maps
Dust2magic ban
38%56%
magic · 4 mapsedge BIG +18%BIG · 5 maps
AnubisBIG ban
50%60%
magic · 4 mapsedge BIG +10%BIG · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
50%57%
magic · 0 mapsedge BIG +7%BIG · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickBIG take Cache
5. BanBIG remove Mirage
6. Banmagic remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
magic 53%BIG 47%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Cacheprediction missed19:17
magic 43%BIG 57%
The model gave 57% on BIG — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 53%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2