RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EAC#76 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
56%55%
magic · 12 mapsnearly even +1%EAC · 7 maps
Ancientmagic ban
60%42%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +18%EAC · 8 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%38%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +12%EAC · 12 maps
OverpassEAC pick
71%50%
magic · 3 mapsedge magic +21%EAC · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%29%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +31%EAC · 3 maps
Dust2EAC ban
50%40%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +10%EAC · 1 map
AnubisEAC ban
40%40%
magic · 1 mapnearly even +0%EAC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickEAC take Overpass
5. BanEAC remove Anubis
6. Banmagic remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
magic 47%EAC 53%
The model gave 53% on EAC — the map was taken by EAC.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
magic 70%EAC 30%
The model gave 70% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
magic 52%EAC 48%
The model gave 52% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 84%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3