Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FaZe#14 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
62%50%
magic · 9 mapsedge magic +12%FaZe · 2 maps
Dust2FaZe pick
44%44%
magic · 5 mapsnearly even +0%FaZe · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%38%
magic · 4 mapsedge magic +12%FaZe · 4 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
60%50%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +10%FaZe · 0 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%63%
magic · 0 mapsedge FaZe +13%FaZe · 4 maps
Anubismagic ban
50%43%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +7%FaZe · 3 maps
OverpassFaZe ban
67%50%
magic · 2 mapsedge magic +17%FaZe · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickFaZe take Dust2
5. BanFaZe remove Overpass
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
magic 64%FaZe 36%
The model gave 64% on magic — the map was taken by FaZe.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
magic 47%FaZe 53%
The model gave 53% on FaZe — the map was taken by magic.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
magic 67%FaZe 33%
The model gave 67% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 57%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3