StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
61%50%
magic · 14 mapsedge magic +11%Gentle Mates · 10 maps
Ancientmagic ban
57%63%
magic · 10 mapsedge Gentle Mates +6%Gentle Mates · 12 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
60%58%
magic · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Gentle Mates · 15 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%43%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +7%Gentle Mates · 17 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
42%50%
magic · 8 mapsedge Gentle Mates +8%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
AnubisGentle Mates ban
50%50%
magic · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%43%
magic · 3 mapsedge magic +14%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
5. BanGentle Mates remove Anubis
6. Banmagic remove Ancient
DeciderCache (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
magic 64%Gentle Mates 36%
The model gave 64% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
magic 61%Gentle Mates 39%
The model gave 61% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 80%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2