RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
59%42%
magic · 13 mapsedge magic +17%Inner Circle · 8 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
50%69%
magic · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +19%Inner Circle · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
64%60%
magic · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Inner Circle · 6 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
71%56%
magic · 3 mapsedge magic +15%Inner Circle · 5 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
60%50%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%60%
magic · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 6 maps
Anubismagic ban
40%67%
magic · 1 mapedge Inner Circle +27%Inner Circle · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickInner Circle take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (64% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
magic 28%Inner Circle 72%
The model gave 72% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
magic 57%Inner Circle 43%
The model gave 57% on magic — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 63%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2