StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic ban
57%50%
magic · 10 mapsedge magic +7%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 maps
Miragemagic pick
63%46%
magic · 15 mapsedge magic +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 9 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%72%
magic · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +22%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 14 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
60%56%
magic · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
42%40%
magic · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 map
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%50%
magic · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%40%
magic · 4 mapsedge magic +23%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Anubis
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
6. Banmagic remove Ancient
DeciderCache (63% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
magic 60%Ninjas in Pyjamas 40%
The model gave 60% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
magic 47%Ninjas in Pyjamas 53%
The model gave 53% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 57%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2