FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISION#17 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
61%64%
magic · 14 mapsnearly even -3%PARIVISION · 7 maps
Dust2PARIVISION pick
36%55%
magic · 7 mapsedge PARIVISION +19%PARIVISION · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
magic · 6 mapsedge PARIVISION +6%PARIVISION · 5 maps
CachePARIVISION ban
73%29%
magic · 7 mapsedge magic +44%PARIVISION · 3 maps
InfernoPARIVISION ban
60%27%
magic · 1 mapedge magic +33%PARIVISION · 7 maps
Anubismagic ban
50%50%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%PARIVISION · 2 maps
Overpassmagic ban
50%40%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +10%PARIVISION · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Overpass
2. BanPARIVISION remove Inferno
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickPARIVISION take Dust2
5. BanPARIVISION remove Cache
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
magic 50%PARIVISION 50%
The model gave 50% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Infernoprediction correct16:14
magic 78%PARIVISION 22%
The model gave 78% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 51%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2