Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 7:13
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe MongolZ ban
64%33%
magic · 10 mapsedge magic +31%The MongolZ · 5 maps
MirageThe MongolZ ban
54%40%
magic · 9 mapsedge magic +14%The MongolZ · 6 maps
Dust2magic ban
44%75%
magic · 5 mapsedge The MongolZ +31%The MongolZ · 4 maps
Infernomagic ban
57%57%
magic · 3 mapsnearly even +0%The MongolZ · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%60%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +3%The MongolZ · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
50%44%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +6%The MongolZ · 5 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
60%43%
magic · 1 mapedge magic +17%The MongolZ · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
3. Banmagic remove Dust2
4. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
5. Banmagic remove Inferno
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Mirage
DeciderCache (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
magic 64%The MongolZ 36%
The model gave 64% on magic — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 70%
Series resultThe MongolZ 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1