StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukemagic ban
50%59%
magic · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +9%Walczaki · 28 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%68%
magic · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 18 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
45%43%
magic · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Walczaki · 17 maps
Miragemagic pick
59%67%
magic · 13 mapsedge Walczaki +8%Walczaki · 11 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
40%67%
magic · 1 mapedge Walczaki +27%Walczaki · 17 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
60%63%
magic · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Walczaki · 12 maps
Defaultmagic ban
50%60%
magic · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. Banmagic remove Default
DeciderAncient (58% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
magic 42%Walczaki 58%
The model gave 58% on Walczaki — the map was taken by magic.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
magic 23%Walczaki 77%
The model gave 77% on Walczaki — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 71%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2