Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
42%60%
Mai Tai · 15 mapsedge Raccoons +18%Raccoons · 6 maps
DefaultRaccoons pick
39%50%
Mai Tai · 14 mapsedge Raccoons +11%Raccoons · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
42%50%
Mai Tai · 8 mapsedge Raccoons +8%Raccoons · 2 maps
Dust2Mai Tai ban
38%50%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Raccoons · 2 maps
NukeMai Tai ban
33%60%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +27%Raccoons · 1 map
AnubisRaccoons ban
33%50%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +17%Raccoons · 0 maps
CacheRaccoons ban
50%50%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Raccoons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Nuke
2. BanRaccoons remove Cache
3. PickMai Tai take Mirage
4. PickRaccoons take Default
5. BanRaccoons remove Anubis
6. BanMai Tai remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
Mai Tai 39%Raccoons 61%
The model gave 61% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Model check result
Model favoriteMai Tai · 64%
Series resultMai Tai 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1