CCT 2026 Europe Series 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
MANA#122 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons Force#152 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons Force pick
40%40%
MANA · 1 mapnearly even +0%Falcons Force · 1 map
AncientMANA pick
50%40%
MANA · 0 mapsedge MANA +10%Falcons Force · 1 map
InfernoFalcons Force ban
60%50%
MANA · 1 mapedge MANA +10%Falcons Force · 0 maps
MirageMANA ban
40%50%
MANA · 1 mapedge Falcons Force +10%Falcons Force · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMANA remove Mirage
2. BanFalcons Force remove Inferno
3. PickMANA take Ancient
4. PickFalcons Force take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
MANA 53%Falcons Force 47%
The model gave 53% on MANA — the map was taken by MANA.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
MANA 57%Falcons Force 43%
The model gave 57% on MANA — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
MANA 40%Falcons Force 60%
The model gave 60% on Falcons Force — the map was taken by Falcons Force.
Model check result
Model favoriteMANA · 55%
Series resultFalcons Force 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3