CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultSementes do Mal pick
50%50%
Mansão Maromba · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 2 maps
InfernoSementes do Mal ban
40%40%
Mansão Maromba · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
MirageMansão Maromba pick
40%40%
Mansão Maromba · 1 mapnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
CacheMansão Maromba ban
50%40%
Mansão Maromba · 0 mapsedge Mansão Maromba +10%Sementes do Mal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMansão Maromba remove Cache
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Inferno
3. PickMansão Maromba take Mirage
4. PickSementes do Mal take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Mansão Maromba 53%Sementes do Mal 47%
The model gave 53% on Mansão Maromba — the map was taken by Mansão Maromba.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Mansão Maromba 57%Sementes do Mal 43%
The model gave 57% on Mansão Maromba — the map was taken by Mansão Maromba.
Model check result
Model favoriteSementes do Mal · 54%
Series resultMansão Maromba 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2