ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultGround Zero ban
60%50%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%Ground Zero · 0 maps
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
50%60%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 1 map
MirageMARKandLARRY ban
50%60%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Mirage
2. BanGround Zero remove Default
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
MARKandLARRY 43%Ground Zero 57%
The model gave 57% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
MARKandLARRY 47%Ground Zero 53%
The model gave 53% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 66%
Series resultGround Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2