ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
38%50%
MARKandLARRY · 4 mapsedge LFO 8 +12%LFO 8 · 0 maps
AnubisLFO 8 ban
43%50%
MARKandLARRY · 3 mapsedge LFO 8 +7%LFO 8 · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%40%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
MirageLFO 8 ban
50%50%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 0 maps
OverpassMARKandLARRY ban
50%50%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 0 maps
AncientLFO 8 pick
50%40%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
NukeMARKandLARRY ban
40%50%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapedge LFO 8 +10%LFO 8 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Nuke
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
4. PickLFO 8 take Ancient
5. BanLFO 8 remove Anubis
6. BanMARKandLARRY remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
MARKandLARRY 37%LFO 8 63%
The model gave 63% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
MARKandLARRY 53%LFO 8 47%
The model gave 53% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 55%
Series resultMARKandLARRY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2