ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DETONATE#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
63%38%
Marsborne · 12 mapsedge Marsborne +25%DETONATE · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%50%
Marsborne · 15 mapsedge Marsborne +13%DETONATE · 4 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
62%30%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +32%DETONATE · 6 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
50%56%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge DETONATE +6%DETONATE · 5 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
70%30%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +40%DETONATE · 6 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%DETONATE · 0 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%60%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge DETONATE +20%DETONATE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickDETONATE take Nuke
5. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
Marsborne 71%DETONATE 29%
The model gave 71% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Marsborne 66%DETONATE 34%
The model gave 66% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 67%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2